Trump's Cheaper Beef Import Plan Falls Short as Prices Stay High. A Cattle Market Will Not Bend in 90 Days.
The administration's 90-day plan to import lean beef trimmings at a lower tariff is lagging, economists say much of it would have come anyway, and ranchers oppose it.
The facts come first below. My opinion follows in the section marked as opinion.
The Trump administration's plan to bring 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings into the country at a reduced tariff rate has fallen well short of its target, and grocery shoppers have not seen beef prices fall. As of Oct. 19, the U.S. had imported just 59,423 metric tons under the program, about 20% of the goal, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data cited by Fortune.
The imports were scheduled over 90 days, from September through November. Ground beef averaged $6.79 per pound in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, down from $6.92 in August but still above $6.32 a year earlier, Fortune reported. "This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again," Trump wrote on Truth Social when he announced the policy.
A slow start from the first month
The plan is divided into three monthly tranches of 100,000 metric tons each. By Sept. 28, only 37,486 metric tons had entered under the first tranche, leaving roughly 62,514 tons unused, wrote James Mitchell, an extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas, in an analysis published by Farm Progress. He estimated that only 8,054 to 21,936 metric tons of that beef would not have entered the country anyway.
"The main point is that 100,000 metric tons of new beef imports did not materialize in September, and there was no noticeable change in retail beef prices," Mitchell wrote. He added that imported beef still has to be processed and move through the marketing system before consumers buy it, according to Farm Progress.
Why cheaper trimmings have not meant cheaper steaks
Derrell Peel, a livestock economist at Oklahoma State University, told Fortune that lean trimmings are usually blended with fatty domestic trimmings for fast-food restaurants, not sold on grocery shelves. "When you take away the tariff, you make it cheaper, but you don't necessarily increase the demand because we only need so much of it," Peel said. "We were getting as much as we wanted," he told Fortune.
Kansas State University economist Glynn Tonsor told Fortune that strong demand, more than shrinking herds, is driving prices. Beef demand rose 5.9% in the first half of 2026 compared with a year earlier, Fortune reported.
Ranchers opposed the plan from the start. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall asked Trump to roll it back, arguing it could cost ranchers $300 to $400 per head. "To put it simply, the plan undercut a fragile recovery in the cattle industry while failing to benefit consumers," Duvall said, according to Fortune.
The White House defended the policy. "He is delivering on his promise to consumers by reducing beef prices while allowing our American beef herd to grow," spokesperson Anna Kelly told Fortune.
Opinion: A beef market built over generations will not bend in 90 days
The president is right that beef prices matter. Families feel them at the meat counter every week, and he deserves credit for treating grocery costs as a real problem rather than waving them away. Ground beef did tick down from August to September.
But the evidence so far says this plan was built on a hurry, not on how the cattle business works. Most of the quota went unused. Much of what came in would likely have come anyway. And the product is lean trim for burger blends, not the roasts and steaks on a family's grocery list. Meanwhile, the people who raise America's cattle say the policy threatened what they could earn on every animal.
Scripture has a word for rushed fixes: "The thoughts of the diligent tend only to plenteousness; but of every one that is hasty only to want" (Proverbs 21:5). Herds take years to rebuild. Policy that respects that, with stable trade rules and room for ranchers to rebuild, will do more for prices than a 90-day promise before an election.
As with the fight in Cheese Importer Sues Over Trump's 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods, trade policy works best when it is steady and set by law. The rancher and the shopper both need patience and honesty more than headlines.
