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The Texas Governor's Mansion in Austin
The Texas Governor's Mansion in Austin. (Photo: Larry D. Moore / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0)

Jane Long

October 18, 2026 · 2 min read

Abbott Faces His Closest Race Yet as Hinojosa Gains in the Polls

A polling average shows Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 1.8 points as early voting opens, though he has far outspent her.

Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term in what has become the tightest race of his career. As of Friday evening, the RealClearPolitics average of polls taken Sept. 18 through Oct. 11 showed Abbott ahead of Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin by 1.8 points, 48.4% to 46.6%, CBS News Texas reported. The Cook Political Report rates the race "Lean R."

Early voting begins Monday and runs through Oct. 30.

An unlikely challenger

Abbott won each of his three previous elections by double digits and had an $86 million war chest when Hinojosa entered the race, The Texas Tribune reported. Hinojosa, a five-term state representative and former school board president, first considered running for comptroller. She was angry at Abbott over his push for a $1 billion school voucher program, the Tribune reported.

Though Abbott has outspent her on advertising more than six-to-one, five public polls have shown him trailing, a first across his three campaigns for governor, the Tribune reported. If she wins, she would be the first Latina governor of Texas.

What they say

"People want change," Hinojosa told CBS News Texas. "They know who Greg Abbott is, and they're angry. They don't trust him."

Abbott said he is not worried about the polls.

"I see the reality," Abbott said. "And the reality is that when Texans really learn about who Gina Hinojosa is, they react very negatively. She stands for policies that are antagonistic to Texas."

Abbott said Hinojosa supports sanctuary cities, defunding the police and letting foreign adversaries like China buy land in Texas. CBS reported that Abbott is still favored to win despite the polling, in part because of his extensive turnout operation and funding.

Your vote decides

Polls do not cast ballots; people do. A close race is a reminder that every vote carries weight and that voters owe it to their neighbors to weigh records, not just ads. The Senate race is drawing its own crowds, with both candidates on dueling bus tours. Before you go, see what is on every Texas ballot.