Final Polls Give Democrats the Edge as Trump's Disapproval Hits 60%. Polls Do Not Vote, and Neither Party Has Earned Blind Trust.
The final NBC News poll before Tuesday shows Democrats ahead 52% to 45% and Trump's disapproval at a record 60%. The same poll finds the Democratic Party deeply unpopular and Republicans holding ground in Trump country.
The facts come first below. My opinion follows in the section marked as opinion.
Democrats head into Tuesday's midterm elections with a clear lead in the final national polls, and President Donald Trump heads into them with the worst disapproval rating of his two terms in the NBC News poll. But the same surveys show that voters are not in love with the Democratic Party, and that the battle for Congress will be fought on ground Trump won in 2024, NBC News reported.
What the NBC News poll found
Registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress 52% to 45%, a 7-point margin that is 2 points wider than in the poll a month earlier, with a 21-point Democratic lead among independents. The poll was conducted Oct. 28 to Oct. 30, and 3% of voters were undecided, NBC News reported.
Trump's disapproval rating climbed to 60%, a new high in the NBC News poll across his two terms, and his approval stands at 40%. Roughly 3 in 4 voters are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, and for the first time in 30 years of NBC News polling, more voters say they are dissatisfied with their financial situation (51%) than satisfied (49%), according to NBC News.
The poll also carries warnings for Democrats. Just 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively, compared with 38% for the Republican Party, and voters give the two parties about even marks on which better handles key issues. Republicans are leading on the congressional ballot in GOP-held districts and in states Trump won in 2024. "Democrats are in total control of the 2026 issue agenda," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, NBC News reported.
Trump's grip on his base remains strong, with 93% job approval among Republicans who say they support the MAGA movement. Among Republicans who do not, 54% approve and 46% disapprove, the NBC News poll found.
A second survey points the same way
The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, released Oct. 27, found Democrats leading 52% to 44% among likely voters, with independents breaking for Democrats by 13 points. Forty percent of likely voters approved of Trump's job performance while 59% disapproved. Forty-four percent said their vote for Congress is mostly a vote against Trump, compared with 21% who said it is a vote for him, PBS News reported.
That survey also found that about 1 in 5 likely voters had already cast a ballot, favoring Democrats 68% to 31%, while those who had yet to vote were evenly split. Half of Republican likely voters planned to vote in person on Nov. 3, compared with 31% of Democrats. "It's not looking so great for us," Republican strategist Melik Abdul said, though he predicted Republicans will keep the Senate, according to PBS News.
Dock Line has covered one of the Senate races that could decide control: South Carolina Senate Race: Darline Graham vs. Annie Andrews.
Opinion: Polls do not vote, and neither party has earned your blind trust
Republicans should not wave these numbers away. When three in four voters say they are unhappy with the economy and a majority say their own finances are not where they want them, that is not a media invention. Those are families feeling the squeeze in their monthly bills. A party that asks for the trust of working people owes them an honest answer about prices, not just a rally.
Democrats should not celebrate early either. The same poll that gives them a lead also shows that fewer than one voter in three views their party favorably. A lead built on frustration with the other side is not a mandate for the agenda of their loudest activists. Voters who are tired of one party have not signed up for everything the other party wants.
And everyone should remember what a poll is. It is a snapshot taken days before the vote, with undecided voters and a margin of error. The PBS survey shows Republicans are counting on Election Day turnout. That means the outcome is still in the hands of the people who show up Tuesday.
For a Christian, that is the right place to leave it. Scripture says, "The lot is cast into the lap; but the whole disposing thereof is of the LORD." Our duty is not to predict the result. It is to pray, to study the candidates on our own ballots, to vote by conscience for life, family, honest money and the rule of law, and then to accept the count with grace.
So ignore the noise for one more day. Look up your polling place, take a neighbor if you can, and cast your vote. The polls will not decide this election. You will.
