"There's Gonna Be a Correction": GOP Rep. Ryan Guillen Expects South Texas Latino Voters to Shift Left

In 2024, Starr County, a border county that is 97% Latino, voted for a Republican for president for the first time since 1896. One of the Republicans who knows that county best expects some of those voters to swing back on Nov. 3.

"There's gonna be a correction. There's no question about it," state Rep. Ryan Guillen told The Texas Tribune. "There will be a shift. To what degree? That's the big question."

Who Guillen is

Guillen, 48, represents House District 31, which is anchored in Rio Grande City and stretches from Zapata and Starr counties north to San Antonio's southeast suburbs. Roughly seven in 10 residents are Hispanic.

He was first elected in 2002 at 24, after following his father into teaching agriculture. He served almost two decades as a Democrat before switching parties in 2021, and he now leads the Texas House's Hispanic Republican Caucus. As a Democrat, he backed more border security money and supported the state's near-total abortion ban. Last session he passed 22 bills, tied for the most in the House.

"I've always been very conservative," Guillen said of his switch. "You know, I felt it was the right time."

Blame for the party in power

Guillen thinks any backlash would have hit whichever party held power in this economy. Republicans run Austin and Washington, so they will take the blame, he said. But he believes the GOP's floor with South Texas Latinos is still higher than before the recent shift.

"Overall, I believe they are very much in favor of candidates and people that they like, that they appreciate, that they trust, that they can work with — and that goes much farther than a party label," he said.

On immigration, Guillen said some in his district see the Trump administration's crackdown as a "job well done," while others feel "it was done in a very extreme way that was unnecessary." "I think there's valid arguments on all sides," he said.

Other Republicans sound warnings

Jason Villalba, a former GOP state lawmaker who now leads the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, said Republicans misread 2024 as an endorsement of culture-war politics. He said Latino voters were upset about their pocketbooks and the border. "They don't vote based on the color of the jersey," he said.

State Rep. John Lujan, a San Antonio Republican, said, "I'm pro-United States, I'm pro-Texan, and I want people coming in the right way and stuff. But man, we gotta do things differently than the way we're doing it right now."

State Rep. J.M. Lozano, another former Democrat, called the party's outreach to Hispanic voters "anemic." "I pray that AG Paxton wins in November," he said. "I don't want to see Texas turn blue."

Helping the most endangered

Guillen is also coaching younger Republicans. State Rep. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi, who calls herself Democrats' "No. 1" target, said Guillen taught her to send constituents birthday notes and helped her make mini diplomas for graduating seniors. His Frontera Texas PAC has given her $67,100 and, as of early October, had given $92,500 to state Rep. Janie Lopez of San Benito, the Tribune reported.

Recent polls show Democrat James Talarico leading Paxton among Latino voters in the Senate race, some with more than 60% support, though a handful of surveys suggest a smaller shift.

A lesson for any party

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said the typical South Texas politician sits right of most Democrats or left of most Republicans, "and that reflects what South Texas voters like to see."

Guillen's advice is old-fashioned: know your neighbors, show up when there is no campaign, and do not take any voter for granted. That is good counsel for anyone in public life. For the region's marquee congressional contest, see our look at Gonzalez vs. Flores.