Paxton's Home County Is the Prize. Why Collin County Could Decide the Texas Senate Race
No Democrat running for federal office has carried Collin County since 1970. James Talarico is trying, and Ken Paxton is defending the place where his career began. Here is what is shifting.
Tarrant County gets called the Texas bellwether. But in this year's U.S. Senate race, the county to watch may be one county to the east.
Collin County is Ken Paxton's home. He started his political career there as a state representative in 2003 and rose to attorney general. It is also the most populous county in America that a statewide Democratic candidate has not won this century, according to The Texas Tribune. For Democrat James Talarico to win, he may need to do what no Democrat running for federal office has done since 1970, when Lloyd Bentsen beat George H.W. Bush: carry Collin County.
Both campaigns are there
Talarico started his final statewide tour in Plano on the eve of early voting, one of several visits to the county this cycle. Paxton was at a Tex-Mex restaurant in Allen on the first day of early voting, a town he also visited in February, May and August. Both men opened their closing bus tours in North Texas suburbs.
A county that has doubled
Collin County's population has more than doubled since 2000, to nearly 1.3 million. Four of the five fastest-growing cities in the nation are in the county: Celina, Princeton, Melissa and Anna. More than half of adults have at least a bachelor's degree, and the median household income of $121,600 is second-highest in Texas. The county is about 45% white, 23% Asian, 17% Hispanic and 12% Black.
Good schools, plentiful housing and headquarters for companies such as FedEx, Frito Lay and Toyota North America turned commuter towns into an economic engine of their own.
The numbers
In 2020, Collin County voted to the left of the state for the first time in decades, while still backing Republicans. In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz won Texas by less than 3 points and Collin by about 6. In 2024, Cruz won the state by 8 points but Collin by only 5.
"For 10 years, it's been getting a little purpler," said Shelby Williams, a former Collin County GOP chair now running for County Commission. He said Republicans once turned the county from blue to red. "If we can take it from them, they can take it right back from us."
Who is moving, and why
Ross Hunt, a GOP operative in Dallas, said many newcomers moved for jobs, not ideology. But Williams warned against blaming transplants. He noted that in 2018, exit polls showed Democrat Beto O'Rourke won native Texans while Cruz won newcomers. "Some of the greatest patriots I've ever met are people who came from California, and they knew exactly why they left and where they were going," he said.
Asian American voters
Collin has Texas' second-largest Asian population, and Republicans have gained there. Trump narrowly won several Asian-heavy precincts in Frisco in 2024, and 40% of Asian Texans now identify as Republicans versus 31% as Democrats, according to 2026 polling by Asian Texans for Justice, a nonpartisan group.
But anti-Indian rhetoric from some activists and Republican figures has become a flashpoint, the Tribune reported, and Collin County Democratic chair Jeremy Sutka said early voting data shows higher turnout in neighborhoods with large Indian populations. Whatever one thinks of visa policy, Christians cannot treat a neighbor as a problem because of where his family came from.
Split tickets and stay-at-homes
Liz Slack, a Baylor graduate who attends weekly Bible study, voted Republican for years and now plans to vote for Talarico. Anne Bramlett of Lavon, a lifelong Republican, plans to vote for Talarico and for her Republican state representative, Candy Noble. Her husband, a Trump voter, will not vote for Talarico because of his positions on issues like abortion, but is troubled by allegations surrounding Paxton and may skip the race, she said.
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House on bribery allegations and acquitted by the Texas Senate. Democrats plan to keep raising it. Split-ticket voting, though, could keep down-ballot Republicans safe; Sutka described seeing yard signs for both Talarico and Republican county clerk Stacey Kemp at the same house.
Neither campaign was quoted in the Tribune's report.
What to weigh
Voters in Collin County are being asked to weigh a candidate's record, character and positions all at once. Those are fair questions on both sides of the ballot. A Christian voter should take life and honesty seriously, not just party labels. Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30, and Election Day is Nov. 3.
