Past Democratic Primary Voters Edge Republicans in Texas Early Vote. 2.1 Million GOP Regulars Have Not Shown Up Yet

The biggest number from the first week of early voting in Texas may not be the turnout total. It may be who has not voted yet.

Nearly 4.5 million Texans cast a ballot in person or by mail from Oct. 19 through Sunday, Oct. 25, according to Texas secretary of state data reported by The Texas Tribune. That is 23.4% of registered voters, ahead of the 2022 midterm pace but slightly behind 2018, when 24.3% had voted after seven days. Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30, and Election Day is Nov. 3.

Underneath that total is a shift that has caught the attention of analysts in both parties.

Democratic primary voters edge ahead

Texas voters do not register by party, so no one knows for certain how the early vote breaks. Consultants estimate it by looking at which primary, if any, each voter has taken part in.

By that measure, voters who had previously cast a ballot in a Democratic primary made up 35% of the early vote through Sunday, slightly ahead of 33% for voters with a Republican primary history, according to an analysis by Derek Ryan, a Republican consultant and data analyst. About 29% had never voted before or had voted only in general elections, and 4% had voted in both parties' primaries.

Ryan called it unprecedented. "This is actually new territory," he said. "I don't think that I ever recall a point where voters with previous Democratic primary history have outnumbered voters with previous Republican primary history." In 2022 and 2024, he said, Republican primary voters made up larger shares even in the earliest days.

The 2.1 million to watch

Ryan said the number he will watch most closely is the more than 2.1 million Texans who voted in at least one of the last four Republican primaries but have yet to vote in the general election.

"For Republicans to have any chance of victory, they're going to need to see a significant number of that 2.1 million to show up to vote," Ryan said. "We'll start really knowing what the picture looks like by Thursday or Friday."

He expects the pace to pick up sharply this week. "We could see anywhere between maybe 20 to 30% of the votes that get cast in this election get cast on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week," he said. Ryan predicts as many as 10 million Texans may vote, which would put final turnout near 2018's 53%.

What each side sees

Republican strategist Vinny Minchillo said Democratic enthusiasm remains higher, but that the early surge has also pushed Republicans to the polls. "After the first or second day of early voting, you've seen Republicans getting out," he said. "So I have to say on behalf of Republicans everywhere, I am cautiously optimistic."

Democratic strategist Matt Angle pointed to strong turnout in urban counties and said rural voters have made up less than 25% of ballots cast. Democrats want about 40% of the final vote to come from large urban counties, he said, and the early numbers are meeting that mark. "There's every reason to be optimistic but also it's important to be realistic," Angle said. "We don't know how people are voting."

Hispanic voters made up 18% of early voters as of Sunday, according to Ryan's data, one point higher than in 2024 and two points above 2022. A record 19 million Texans are registered for this election, 7.7% more than before the 2022 midterm.

Do not over-read it

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones cautioned against reading too much into early numbers. "I think there's sometimes a tendency to over-interpret early vote numbers because we don't have good benchmarks," he said. Primary history shows how a person has voted in the past, not how he is voting now, and counties self-report their daily totals to the state.

In other words, both parties have reason to work hard through Friday. Neither has reason to celebrate yet.

Your part

If you have not voted, Dock Line's final-week guide covers hours, ID rules and what you cannot bring into the polls. The numbers above are not a prediction. They are a reminder that the millions of registered Texans who have not voted yet will help decide who represents the state.

Pray for wisdom, study your ballot, and vote.