Texas Counties Set Day One Early Voting Records. Here Is What the Numbers Can and Cannot Tell You
Harris, Dallas, Montgomery, Ellis, Bell and McLennan counties all reported record first-day turnout. Consultants on both sides say it is too soon to know who benefits. Here is what they are watching, and why your vote still counts the same.
Texans turned out in force on the first day of early voting. Now comes the hard part: not reading too much into it.
Several counties reported record-breaking turnout on Monday, Oct. 19, The Texas Tribune reported. Harris County, the state’s largest and a blue-leaning county, set its record for the first day of voting in a midterm. Dallas County saw its highest number of Day 1 early votes ever.
It was not just blue counties. Republican-heavy Montgomery County had record midterm turnout, the Tribune reported, as did Ellis County in North Texas and Bell and McLennan counties in Central Texas.
Why both sides claim the momentum
Campaign consultants in both parties warned against drawing conclusions from a single day.
"You could probably ask a consultant from either party, and they would say that increased turnout benefits their side," consultant Derek Ryan told The Blast, the Tribune’s premium newsletter.
The earliest voters tend to come from the party with the most enthusiasm, and both sides agree that is currently the Democrats, according to the Tribune. The question is whether Republicans can match it as the two weeks go on.
"There’s an increased energy level amongst Democrats, and so they’ve been waiting for two years to show up to vote," Ryan said. "There’s only a finite number of [previous Democratic primary voters] in the state, so once that pool starts to shrink, do the Republicans start to make up some of the ground there?"
President Donald Trump is headed to Lubbock and Waco next week for appearances with Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. Ryan said those are two of the larger red areas he will be watching.
What the strategists are watching
New voters. Independent consultant Samuel Temple said the more newcomers show up, the better for Democrats. "If the Dems want to flip statewide seats beyond Talarico and maybe [railroad commissioner nominee Jon Rosenthal], they need to see a bunch of unknowns show up," he said.
Republicans who skipped the primary. Ryan said he will be watching the 1.2 million previous Republican primary voters who sat out the March primary. "The fact that they didn’t show up, it leaves you with the question of why didn’t they show up to vote in such a contested Republican primary, and do they still plan on voting Republican in this election," he said.
Rural turnout. Ryan said Republicans need at least 25% of the overall vote to come from outside the state’s 25 largest counties. Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist and founder of the Lone Star Project, cited the same 25% rural share. Angle said Democrats need the five largest counties to make up 40% of turnout.
High turnout does not belong to one party
GOP consultant Ross Hunt predicted turnout will break all midterm records but rejected the idea that high turnout tells you who wins. "There are some situations in which there’s an answer to that question, but usually the aggregate level of turnout or percentage level turnout really doesn’t bear directly on the outcome," he said.
Hunt noted that the number of Republicans in Texas has grown significantly since 2018. He said Paxton’s trouble is with voters who skip party primaries but have tended to vote Republican. "Those voters are the ones who are really divided in their vote, whereas most of the Democratic-leaning independents are all lined up solidly for Talarico, so that’s really what’s putting Paxton in a bad position right now," he said.
The Senate race between Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is not the only close contest. Our look at the governor’s race found Gov. Greg Abbott in the tightest race of his career.
What matters for you
The strategists are counting groups. The ballot counts people, and yours counts the same whether you vote on day one or day twelve.
According to the Texas Secretary of State, early voting for the Nov. 3 election runs through Oct. 30, and the last day for applications for a ballot by mail to be received is Oct. 23. Bring an acceptable photo ID, and check your county election website for locations and hours. If your name is not on the list when you arrive, here is how a provisional ballot works.
Elections are a stewardship. Pray for wisdom, read the whole ballot down to the bottom, and vote. Turnout records are interesting. Informed voters matter more.
