Democrats Flip Texas House Seats and Eye Their First Majority Since 2003. The Speaker Race Has Already Begun
The AP had called five Texas House flips for Democrats by 5 a.m. Wednesday, with Democrats leading in about a dozen more GOP seats. They need 14 to win the chamber. Here is what is called, what is not, and who wants the gavel.
The statewide sweep got the headlines Tuesday night. But the biggest unanswered question in Austin on Wednesday morning is a quieter one: who will control the Texas House?
Republicans have held the chamber since 2003. Democrats need to flip 14 Republican seats to take it. According to The Texas Tribune, the Associated Press had called five flips for Democrats as of 5 a.m. Wednesday, and Democrats were leading in at least a dozen more districts Republicans now hold. Most of the closest races were still uncalled.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party's national legislative campaign arm, put out a statement Wednesday claiming Democrats had flipped 14 seats and won the House. That is a partisan claim, not a race call. We have not found AP calls for 14 flips, so we are treating the majority as uncalled.
That means the majority is within Democrats' reach, but it is not settled. Until the AP calls those races or counties finish counting, nobody should say the House has changed hands. As we explained before the election, election night numbers are not the final word. Counties still have provisional and late mail ballots to process, and close races can go to a recount.
The seats called so far
The Tribune reported these Republican-held seats fell overnight:
San Benito: Republican Rep. Janie Lopez lost a hotly contested South Texas race.
Corpus Christi: Republican Rep. Denise Villalobos lost as well.
South San Antonio: Democrat Kristian Carranza flipped the seat held by Rep. John Lujan, who ran for Congress instead of seeking reelection.
North San Antonio: Republican Rep. Marc LaHood lost.
Tarrant County: Democrat Ebony Turner won an open Republican seat.
Races still to watch
Several more Republicans were behind or had conceded as the counting went on, the Tribune reported, though not every race had been called:
In Dallas County, Rep. Angie Chen Button of Garland, a nine-term member, was on pace to lose.
In Denton County, Rep. Ben Bumgarner of Flower Mound conceded.
In Harris County, Rep. Mike Schofield of Katy was down significantly. Rep. Lacey Hull of Houston and Rep. Valoree Swanson of Spring also trailed.
In Tarrant County, Democrats led in three more uncalled races. Rep. John McQueeney of Fort Worth trailed Democrat Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin with all precincts reporting, even after outspending her 30-to-1 since July.
Many of these seats were on our list of the most competitive races on Tuesday's ballot. Readers in those districts should watch their county elections office for updated counts this week.
Why it happened
Republicans did not take the House for granted. The Tribune reported that the GOP and its allies spent millions across more than 30 Republican-held districts and outspent Democrats in most competitive races. National Democratic money, by contrast, mostly stayed away.
GOP data consultant Ross Hunt told the Tribune that Republicans were surprised by how poorly their statewide candidates did, and that those losses "trickled down the ballot." He said it looked like Republicans would lose control of the House.
In a separate Tribune analysis, Republican consultants called the night a clear repudiation of recent policies from President Donald Trump. They pointed to the cost of groceries and gas, the war in Iran and anger over data centers. Republican Sen. Bryan Hughes of Mineola said voters were frustrated about issues state leaders "have no control over."
The race for the gavel
Even before the majority is known, the fight over the speaker's chair has begun. Speaker Dustin Burrows, a Republican, holds the gavel now.
Rep. Senfronia Thompson, a Houston Democrat who has served since 1973, announced a run for speaker before midnight with the backing of at least 11 Democrats, including caucus chair Gene Wu. Known as "Ms. T," she is the longest-serving woman and Black lawmaker in Texas history and is respected in both parties.
"I am ready to lead this House with the experience, respect, and determination this moment demands," Thompson said.
The Tribune reported that Speaker Pro Tempore Joe Moody, an El Paso Democrat who has worked closely with GOP House leaders, was also seen as a possible contender. Some compared that path to 2009, when Republican Joe Straus took the gavel with help from members of the other party.
What a Democratic House would want
Rep. Christina Morales of Houston, who leads House Democrats' campaign arm, told the Tribune her party's early priorities would include expanding Medicaid, repealing the school voucher program and repealing immigration laws passed in recent sessions.
Those are big changes. With Republicans on track to keep the Texas Senate, according to the Tribune, very little of that can pass without the votes of Republicans across the hall. That is how a divided government is supposed to work.
A word for both sides
Elections are not the end of the story. They are a change in who carries the weight. Republicans who lost seats Tuesday will have to look hard at why voters walked away. Democrats who may now lead the House will have to remember that most Texans still hold conservative values about faith, family, life and the border.
For now, the honest answer is simple: Democrats have gained real ground, the House majority is not yet called, and the count continues. The 90th Legislature convenes in January, and the members who take their seats will owe Texans humility, honesty and hard work no matter which party holds the gavel.
