Beyond the Top of the Ticket: The Texas House, Senate and Congressional Races Most Likely to Change Hands Today

Texans vote today, and most of the talk has been about the races at the top of the ballot. But some of the contests most likely to change hands sit further down, in U.S. House and legislative districts that most voters have never heard much about.

Texas appears to have its biggest slate of competitive races for the Legislature and Congress in years, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of all 38 U.S. House seats, all 150 Texas House seats and the 16 Texas Senate seats on the ballot. The Tribune rated each race using how the district voted in the 2024 presidential and 2018 U.S. Senate elections, whether an incumbent is running and polling trends.

If you have not voted yet, our guide covers what to bring and where you can vote.

South Texas holds the key House races

All four of the state's most competitive U.S. House races are in majority-Hispanic districts in South Texas, and each went for President Donald Trump by 10 points or more in 2024, the Tribune found.

Last year, at the president's urging, the Republican Legislature redrew Texas' congressional map in the middle of the decade. The map was designed to net the party up to five more seats. A cheat sheet from the San Antonio Report, published by Houston Public Media, says five of the most competitive races in the country are now in San Antonio or South Texas.

Republican strategist Craig Murphy told the San Antonio Report that redistricting shook up San Antonio the most. "That makes it very hard to predict," he said. "There is no track record."

The districts to watch

District 34. Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen faces Republican Eric Flores, who has help from Trump and national Republicans, along with Green and Libertarian candidates. The Cook Political Report rates it a toss-up. We looked closely at the Gonzalez-Flores race last month.

District 28. Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo faces Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina. Trump pardoned Cuellar from bribery, money laundering and conspiracy charges. Republicans cut the San Antonio portion out of the district, but Cuellar says the new map is actually better for him because it expands into his home base.

District 35. This is an entirely new district. It starts in San Antonio and stretches east into rural Karnes, Wilson and Guadalupe counties. No incumbent is running. Republican Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, faces Democrat Johnny Garcia, a longtime Bexar County sheriff's deputy.

District 15. Here Republicans are on defense. Monica De La Cruz of Edinburg faces Tejano singer Bobby Pulido in a redrawn district that now includes southeastern Hidalgo County and part of the Coastal Bend. It voted for Trump by about 18 points in 2024, yet Cook calls it a toss-up.

District 23. The seat is open after Republican Tony Gonzales resigned in April. Republican Brandon Herrera faces Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, a child welfare attorney, in a district that runs from San Antonio toward El Paso.

The Tribune also lists District 9, which includes the eastern Houston area, as a race to watch. It has no incumbent on the ballot.

The Legislature

Republicans hold an 88-62 majority in the Texas House. Democrats would need to flip 14 seats to win control, but narrowing the gap could still change the shape of next year's session. The Tribune counts at least a dozen highly competitive House districts, about half of them in the Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio areas.

In Corpus Christi's House District 34, Republican state Rep. Denise Villalobos faces Democrat Stephanie Guerrero Sáenz. Democrats are also targeting House District 37 in the Valley, held by Republican Rep. Janie Lopez, and the Dallas County seats of Republicans Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button.

In the Texas Senate, the most competitive race is District 9 in the northern Fort Worth area. Democratic Sen. Taylor Rehmet took office months ago after winning it in a special election, flipping a seat Trump had carried by 17 points. He faces Republican Leigh Wambsganss again in a rematch.

A word before you vote

Many of these districts are brand new, and the candidates are newcomers to many of their own voters. Read up on the people on your ballot, not only the names at the top. Whoever wins, these seats will shape the laws Texans live under for years. Vote your conscience.