Texas Senate Race Tops $500 Million as Early Voting Opens With Talarico Narrowly Ahead
Ad spending in the Paxton-Talarico race has passed half a billion dollars, polls show a race within a few points, and Texans start voting Monday.
Texans start voting Monday in a U.S. Senate race that has drawn more than half a billion dollars in ad spending, and the polls say nobody should take it for granted.
On the eve of early voting, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holds a slim lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. The RealClearPolitics average of polls taken between Sept. 24 and Oct. 14 shows Talarico ahead by 2.2 percentage points, CBS News Texas reported. That is close enough that turnout could decide it.
Half a billion dollars and counting
According to AdImpact figures cited by CBS News Texas, spending on the Texas Senate race has topped $500 million. That figure includes the primary races and ad time already booked for the coming weeks. Republicans account for more than $368 million of it, and Democrats about $132 million.
Both campaigns reported big third-quarter hauls last week. Talarico raised $64 million, which his campaign says is the most any Senate candidate has raised in a third quarter. Paxton raised $18 million, double what he brought in during the second quarter.
A large share of the outside money has come from one man. Parker Hevron, a political science professor at Texas Woman’s University, told CBS News Texas that the race comes down to "the $286 million question," his description of how much Elon Musk has put into outside groups running ads aimed at driving up Talarico’s negatives. Dock Line has looked at what Musk’s giving means for conservatives before, and the question has not gone away.
What the polls show
The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 5 among 861 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 points, found Talarico at 50 percent and Paxton at 47 percent. Libertarian Ted Brown drew 1 percent and 2 percent chose someone else.
The crosstabs show two very different Texases. Paxton led among men 54 to 42 and among rural voters 66 to 30. Talarico led among women 56 to 40, among suburban voters 54 to 44, among urban voters 54 to 41 and among Latino voters 54 to 41. Independents broke hard for Talarico, 69 to 11.
The same poll found the rest of the statewide ballot just as tight, including the governor’s race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa. The Texas Politics Project keeps a running Senate poll tracker for readers who want to see every public survey side by side.
The closing arguments
Talarico used a CNN town hall last week to repeat a theme he has leaned on all year. "I am tired of us being divided into teams, left vs. right, blue vs. red, urban vs. rural because the truth is we’re all on the same team," he said, according to CBS News Texas.
Republicans brought in reinforcements. Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Paxton in Tyler last Tuesday.
"Because of you, we’re going to make him the next United States Senator representing Texas, Ken Paxton. He fights for you. Let’s fight for him," Vance said.
President Trump, who has urged Republicans to back Paxton, also took aim at members of his own party on Truth Social. "If Ken Paxton loses, it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove," he wrote. CBS News Texas said Cornyn’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
Both candidates are also crisscrossing the state on dueling bus tours as voting begins.
Before you vote
Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, and Election Day is Nov. 3. The Senate race sits near the top of a long ballot, so it is worth reading what is on every Texas ballot before you go.
Half a billion dollars buys a lot of airtime, but it cannot cast a single vote. Every Texan gets one. Use it with a clear head and a clean conscience, and do not let the ads do your thinking for you.
