Texas Republicans Redrew the Congressional Map to Gain Five Seats. They Are on Track to Lose One Instead
The 2025 redraw was meant to give the GOP a 30-8 edge in Texas' U.S. House delegation. AP has called 18 seats for Republicans and 13 for Democrats, and current leads point to 24-14.
Last year, at President Donald Trump's urging, Texas Republicans redrew the state's congressional map in the middle of the decade. The goal was five more Republican seats in the U.S. House. Democrats fought it so hard that many of them left the state to deny the Legislature a quorum.
Tuesday, voters had the last word, and the plan backfired.
According to The Texas Tribune, Republican candidates lost four of the five seats the new map was drawn to flip, and they lost two seats they already held. Republicans had hoped for a 30-8 delegation. The Tribune projects 24-14, which would leave Texas Republicans with one fewer seat than they had at the start of the current Congress.
The Associated Press count backs that up, but it is not final. As of about 5:20 a.m. Wednesday, AP had called 18 Texas seats for Republicans and 13 for Democrats. Seven were still uncalled. Republicans led in six of them (the 2nd, 5th, 22nd, 27th, 32nd and 38th districts), and Democrats led in one (the 9th). If every leader holds, the delegation would be 24-14. Two Republican-held seats, the 15th and 23rd, are AP-called flips.
South Texas held for Democrats
Four of the five target districts had a majority-Latino eligible voting population, the Tribune reported. The map assumed Republicans would keep most of the gains Trump made with Latino Texans in 2024. They did not.
Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen, both moderates, won reelection, according to AP calls, in districts redrawn to include more Trump voters. Near San Antonio, Bexar County sheriff's deputy Johnny Garcia beat Republican Carlos De La Cruz in the new 35th District, a seat Trump carried by 10 points.
In Houston, Democrat Leticia Gutierrez led Army veteran and former investment banker Alex Mealer 77,668 to 59,511 in the 9th District, which Trump won by 20 points in 2024, according to the Texas Secretary of State's count as of 5:23 a.m. The Tribune reported Gutierrez as the winner, but AP had not called the race. Gutierrez was badly outspent. Mealer had raised $2.8 million as of mid-October, according to federal filings cited by the Tribune.
Two Republican seats lost
In the Rio Grande Valley, Tejano musician Bobby Pulido ousted two-term Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz of Edinburg in the 15th District.
In the sprawling 23rd District, which runs from San Antonio toward El Paso, Democrat Katy Padilla Stout beat YouTuber and gun-rights activist Brandon Herrera. The seat had been empty since Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned in April over a sex scandal involving a staffer. The district leaned toward Trump by 15 points.
That race is a hard lesson. Character matters, and voters notice when it is missing. A seat lost to scandal, and then contested by a candidate the Tribune described as known for "edgy, controversial comments," was a seat Republicans should never have had to fight for. Republicans did hold one Democratic-held seat in play: in the Dallas-area 32nd District, Republican Jace Yarbrough led Democrat Dan Barrios 142,834 to 134,781 in the state count, with no AP call. Several of these districts were on our Election Day list of the races to watch.
The new faces
Ten Texas seats will change hands for reasons that have nothing to do with the redraw, because members retired, ran for other offices or lost primaries. Most were not competitive in November. The Tribune reported these winners:
30th District (Dallas): the Rev. Frederick Haynes III, pastor of Friendship-West Baptist Church for more than 40 years, succeeds Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who lost the Senate primary.
38th District (Houston area): Republican Jon Bonck, a mortgage loan officer endorsed by Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, led Democrat Melissa McDonough 123,506 to 116,539 for Rep. Wesley Hunt's seat. The race was uncalled.
21st District: Republican Mark Teixeira, the former Texas Rangers draft pick and 14-season Major League player, succeeds Rep. Chip Roy, who ran for attorney general.
2nd District: Republican state Rep. Steve Toth of Conroe, who beat Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the primary, led Democrat Shaun Finnie 132,050 to 124,188. The race was uncalled.
Austin: Democratic Rep. Greg Casar moves to Rep. Lloyd Doggett's seat, and former Rep. Colin Allred returns in Rep. Marc Veasey's seat.
Other open Republican seats: Tom Sell succeeds Rep. Jodey Arrington, Chris Gober succeeds Rep. Michael McCaul and Jessica Hart Steinmann succeeds Rep. Morgan Luttrell, all AP calls. In the 10th District, Gober beat Democrat Caitlin Rourk 161,425 to 138,832, a clear margin in the latest state count. In the 22nd, Trever Nehls led Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott 128,363 to 118,446 for the seat held by his identical twin brother, Rep. Troy Nehls. That race was uncalled.
What it means in Washington
The redraw also failed at its larger purpose, which was to protect the slim Republican majority in the U.S. House. AP reported that Democrats won the House and also took the U.S. Senate, giving Trump a Congress under full Democratic control for his last two years. Texas added to that Senate majority when James Talarico beat Ken Paxton.
The Texas move set off a redistricting fight across the country. The Tribune reported that California Democrats drew their own map in response and had picked up three of five targets by early Wednesday, leading in the other two. In Florida, Republicans hoped to flip four Democratic seats. Three stayed Democratic and the fourth was within a point.
In a broader look at the night, the Tribune noted that the map Republicans drew "yielded them no gains" and in fact cost them a seat overall. Every vote total in this story is unofficial until the canvass.
The lesson
Drawing lines to pick your voters is legal under current law, and both parties do it when they can. But a map is only as good as the trust behind it. Republicans counted on Latino Texans to keep voting the way they did in 2024. Many of those voters are churchgoing, hardworking, family-first people who share conservative values. They also expect to be earned, not assumed.
Texas Republicans now have two years to earn them back. Texas Democrats, on track for 14 seats, have two years to show they will represent the faith and values of the districts that sent them, not just the national party. The 2028 map is already being watched.
