Texas Early Voting Ends With a Record 7.4 Million Midterm Ballots. Here Is What the Numbers Do and Do Not Tell Us
About 39% of registered Texans voted early, a record for a midterm and well past 2022. Harris County set its own record. Analysts say the totals show high interest but cannot say who is winning.
Early voting in Texas is over, and it set a record for a midterm election.
Through the close of early voting Friday, Oct. 30, Texans cast 7,410,631 ballots in person and by mail, according to Texas secretary of state data reported by CBS Texas. That is 38.92% of the state's 19,041,684 registered voters.
The previous midterm records were not close. The secretary of state's office reports that nearly 5.5 million Texans voted early in the 2022 midterm and just under 4.9 million in 2018, CBS Texas said.
A late surge
The finish was stronger than the start. Earlier in the week, the turnout rate was running behind 2018, when Beto O'Rourke challenged U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, The Texas Tribune reported.
Three days ago, we reported that nearly 4.5 million Texans had voted after the first seven days, or 23.4% of registered voters. That means roughly 2.9 million more voted in the final five days.
Harris County, the state's largest, ended early voting with 1,081,010 voters counted, the most ever for a midterm there and more than a third of its registered voters, ABC13 Houston reported. The final day was the county's biggest.
The state's voter rolls have grown too. More than 19 million Texans are registered, up 2.2% from the November 2024 presidential election, according to the Tribune.
How it compares
Midterms usually draw fewer voters than presidential years, and this one is no exception. Texans cast 9 million early ballots in the 2024 general election, a 49% early turnout rate, the Tribune reported. In 2020, 9.7 million voted early, 57% of registered voters at the time.
"We're not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout," said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.
What it does not tell us
Turnout numbers say how many people voted, not how they voted. Texas voters do not register by party, and ballots are not counted until Election Day.
Jones put the open question plainly: "How many votes are actually still out there?"
Democratic strategist Matt Angle told the Tribune that turnout is rising in urban counties such as Harris, Dallas and Tarrant, which he called "areas where Democrats compete better." But he warned against easy conclusions. "That doesn't mean Democrats are going to win, Republicans are going to lose," he said. "That's a big mistake to make those assumptions."
Republicans have their own reasons for hope. A GOP strategist told the Tribune last week that Republicans had been turning out after the first days of early voting, and that he was "cautiously optimistic." At that point, more than 2.1 million Texans who had voted in recent Republican primaries had not yet voted, according to GOP data analyst Derek Ryan.
Polls show close races at the top of the ballot. A Texas Southern University survey released Oct. 29 showed Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 47% in the U.S. Senate race, and Gov. Greg Abbott at 50% to Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 47%, ABC13 reported.
The numbers are not final
The figures posted Saturday are preliminary. Each county reports its own turnout, some report faster than others, and mail ballots are still coming in, the Tribune noted. The count on election night will be unofficial as well, as Dock Line explained this week.
If you have not voted
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Voters must bring one of seven acceptable forms of photo ID, and can look up Election Day polling places through the VoteTexas.gov voter portal, ABC13 noted.
A record early vote is a sign that Texans take their citizenship seriously. That is worth something no matter who wins. If you are one of the roughly 11.6 million registered Texans who did not vote early, your turn is coming. Pray, study the ballot, and show up.
