Two New Polls Show Texas Statewide Races Within a Few Points
A UT/Texas Politics Project poll shows Democrats narrowly ahead in several statewide races, while a Marist poll shows Republicans gaining. Early voting starts Monday.
Five days before early voting opens, two new polls show Texas statewide races closer than they have been in years, The Texas Tribune reported Wednesday. Republicans should not panic, and Democrats should not celebrate. But no one should take these races for granted.
The UT/Texas Politics Project poll
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, released Wednesday, surveyed 1,200 registered voters from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5. Its head-to-head results come from 861 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percentage points. It found Democrats with narrow leads in several statewide races:
U.S. Senate: Democrat James Talarico 50 percent, Republican Ken Paxton 47 percent.
Governor: Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49 percent, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 48 percent, effectively a tie.
Lieutenant governor: Democrat Vikki Goodwin 49 percent, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 46 percent.
The attorney general, comptroller and railroad commissioner races were each separated by 1 point. Democrat Nathan Johnson led Republican Mayes Middleton for attorney general, Republican Don Huffines led Democrat Sarah Eckhardt for comptroller, and Democrat Jon Rosenthal led Republican Bo French for railroad commissioner.
Among registered voters, the same poll found the generic Republican ahead of the generic Democrat for Congress and the Legislature. Pollsters pointed to enthusiasm: 72 percent of Democrats said they were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting, 10 points more than Republicans.
The Marist poll
A Marist poll released Tuesday, conducted Oct. 8 to 11 among 1,196 registered voters, shows Republicans gaining ground. Its likely-voter results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points. Among likely voters, Talarico led Paxton 47 percent to 45 percent. In the governor's race, Abbott led Hinojosa 49 percent to 45 percent, which the Tribune described as a 7-point swing toward Abbott since September. Among registered voters, Marist found the governor's race within 1 point, after Hinojosa held a 3-point edge last month.
Both polls found President Donald Trump's approval slipping in Texas. Marist found 54 percent of likely voters disapprove of him, and the UT/Texas Politics Project poll found more voters disapproving than approving for the third poll in a row, according to the Tribune.
How to read it
A 1- to 3-point lead in a poll is inside the range where either candidate could win. Both polls' head-to-head numbers are among likely voters, but they were taken at different times with different methods, and the later Marist poll was better for Republicans. The only poll that counts is the one Texans take at the ballot box.
What the numbers do show is that turnout will decide these races. The side whose voters actually show up, from early voting on Oct. 19 to Election Day on Nov. 3, will win.
Show up
Christians are not called to put their hope in candidates or parties. But we are called to be faithful citizens, and in a close race, faithfulness looks like a vote cast with a clear conscience. Learn where the candidates stand, read your whole ballot and go. Our guide to what is on every Texas ballot lists the statewide races and candidates.
Hero photo: Daderot via Wikimedia Commons, CC0 public domain dedication.
