Republicans Pull Back From House Battlegrounds. Conservatives Should Hear the Warning.
The Congressional Leadership Fund canceled spending in four House races and shifted money to 16 others as Republicans grow more defensive three weeks before the midterms.
With three weeks left before the Nov. 3 midterms, national Republicans are pulling money out of House races they once planned to fight for, including the seats of two of their own incumbents.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading House Republican super PAC, canceled spending in four races and increased its investment in 16 others, the Associated Press reported Tuesday, citing three Republican campaign officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. A super PAC allied with President Trump is also cutting back near Las Vegas.
Where the money is leaving
The group is no longer advertising in Iowa's 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces Democrat Christina Bohannan for the third time. Their last race was decided by 799 votes, the second-closest in the country, according to the AP.
It is also pulling out of New Jersey's 7th District, where Rep. Tom Kean Jr. faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett. The AP reported that Kean has faced scrutiny over a four-month absence from Congress that he left unexplained until disclosing a mental health crisis on his return.
The other two races are a Cincinnati-area district and one in east-central Michigan, held by Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman and Kristen McDonald Rivet, whom Republicans had hoped to unseat, The New York Times reported, citing three people with direct knowledge of the plans. The Times reported the group is redirecting about $10 million from those four races to 16 other districts. Congressional Leadership Fund President Chris Winkelman told the Times the group had built "the resources and infrastructure that allow us to maneuver in a difficult environment." Separately, Safety and Affordability, an offshoot of MAGA Inc., pulled nearly $1 million aimed at unseating Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada's 3rd District.
The retreat is not limited to those races. Politico Playbook reported that Republicans had already drawn back from the Omaha-based district held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon, and that senior House Republicans expect to lose control of the chamber. Top GOP operatives told Politico more races may be cut in the coming days.
Republicans explain why
Some of the most candid explanations came from Republicans themselves. "The economic environment has not been good," David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth, told the AP. "Voters are dissatisfied with their Republican majority and the base is also dissatisfied that they weren't able to get the SAVE America Act passed," he said, referring to Trump's proof-of-citizenship voting bill. "It looked like Republicans were weak, and so you've seen a lot of drop-off in enthusiasm."
The economic part is hard to argue with. Inflation rose to 3.7% in September, with gasoline up 9.1% in a single month, as Dock Line reported in our look at the latest price numbers.
Money is not the problem. "Republican resources are at a high. They've never been this well-funded in the midterm," GOP strategist Stu Sandler told the AP. The party's challenge, he said, is turning out voters who show up for presidential elections but often skip midterms.
Democrats sense an opening
Democrats are moving the other way. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a $17 million fundraising drive with an Oct. 22 deadline to advertise in districts once seen as out of reach, including Ohio's 10th, held by 12-term Rep. Mike Turner, according to the AP.
The same defensive pattern shows up in the Senate. The AP reported that the Senate Leadership Fund is putting $15 million into Nebraska to protect Sen. Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, in a state Trump won by more than 20 points.
Time for honest stewardship
Campaign triage is normal. Every party in every cycle moves money from races it thinks are lost to races it thinks it can win. Conservatives should not panic over a memo about ad buys.
But they should listen to what their own people are saying. When the head of the Club for Growth says voters see a weak majority and a sour economy, that is not a Democratic talking point. It is a warning from the right.
Jesus told a parable about a man who starts building a tower without first counting the cost, and ends up mocked because he cannot finish it (Luke 14:28-30). A governing majority is a kind of tower. It is built on promises to voters, and it stands only if those promises are kept. Lower prices, secure elections and steady leadership were the promises. Where voters feel those were not delivered, no amount of super PAC money will fully cover the gap.
Nothing is decided yet. Early voting is still ahead in places like Texas, where it starts Monday, and polls have been wrong before. Conservatives who want to keep their majority would do better spending the next three weeks making the case on the merits than blaming the referees. If the House is lost, the honest postmortem should start with the question McIntosh already asked.
Hero photo: Martin Falbisoner via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.
