Control of Congress Is on the Ballot Today. Here Are the Races to Watch and When Polls Close. Choose Character, Then Be Patient.

The facts come first below. My opinion follows in the section marked as opinion.

Americans are voting today in midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress for the rest of President Donald Trump's term. Polling shows Democrats up between 7 and 11 points on the generic ballot, and the night's big question is whether a true wave will materialize, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The math

Senate Republicans have 53 seats and Democrats have 47. Democrats must add a net four seats to take the majority while defending a few seats of their own. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, and 218 is the threshold for a majority. The House now has 218 Republicans, an independent who caucuses with the GOP, 214 Democrats and two vacancies, according to CBS News.

CBS News said Republicans are vulnerable primarily because of the unpopular Iran war and continuing cost-of-living pressure, and that most of the 22 seats the GOP is defending are in states Trump easily won in 2024.

Senate races to watch

The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate seats as tossups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. South Carolina leans Republican, and Minnesota and New Hampshire lean Democratic. North Carolina and Georgia, once seen as competitive, are now viewed by forecasters as fairly safe for Democrats, the Los Angeles Times reported.

In Michigan, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for the seat Sen. Gary Peters is leaving. In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces a comeback bid by former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton faces state Rep. James Talarico. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces state Rep. Josh Turek for the seat Sen. Joni Ernst is leaving, according to CBS News.

Michigan may matter most. If Democrats lose there, their path to Senate control becomes difficult, and they would have to flip five of six swing seats in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina. A Democratic win in Maine would likely be a good sign for the party's Senate hopes, the Los Angeles Times reported.

For background on one Michigan twist, see Democrat Haley Stevens Endorses Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Early House clues and closing times

More than four dozen House races are competitive, including 18 the Cook Political Report rates as tossups. Analysts named Kentucky's 6th District, Iowa's 2nd, New York's 17th and Texas' 15th as early signals. "If Democrats win that district, then it's a Democratic tsunami," Georgetown University professor Christopher Warshaw said of Kentucky's 6th, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET, 5 p.m. Central, in eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and most of Florida follow at 7 p.m. ET, and North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia at 7:30 p.m. ET. Polls in most of Texas close at 8 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. Central, and the last close in Alaska at 1 a.m. ET. If you are in line before a site closes, you have the right to remain in line and vote, CBS News reported.

The House majority could become clear before the night is over, but the Senate could take longer, particularly if it comes down to Alaska. Some key House races are in states with slower counts, including California and Pennsylvania, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Opinion: Choose character first, then be patient

Solomon put it plainly: "When the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice: but when the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn." That is the real question on the ballot today. Control of Congress matters, but the men and women we send there matter more.

Republicans walk into this day with real headwinds. Voters are worried about prices and an unpopular war, and conservatives should be honest about that instead of blaming the polls. But Democrats should be careful about reading a wave into the numbers before a single vote is counted. Forecasts are not results, as we said when the final polls came in, and many of these races are close.

Whatever happens, a divided government is not the end of the republic, and a sweep is not a mandate for everything. The founders built a system where power changes hands peacefully at the ballot box. Our job is to vote our convictions on life, family, liberty, honest money and a strong defense, and then to let the count finish.

So vote if you have not. Pray for the candidates and the poll workers. And tonight, when the early returns start bouncing around, remember that patience is a virtue, not a delay tactic.