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Impolite Company: Trump Destroys Biden in every Swing State Poll since November of 2023

Impolite Company: Trump Destroys Biden in every Swing State Poll since November of 2023

Impolite Company: Trump Destroys Biden in every Swing State Poll since November of 2023

The Primary Elections are all but over, both Trump and Biden will have their rematch in the 2024 Presidential Election. Both candidates have stacked up enough wins in States to guarantee that they will be their party’s nominee come November. Both Trump, and Biden have achieved this despite numerous opinion polls that state that Americans on both sides of the political aisle do not like either one. It once again appears that Americans will be left to voting against one candidate instead of for another, and they have no one to blame for this but themselves, as they were the ones that voted (or didn’t vote) to make it happen. Yet perhaps we can say that this was inevitable. Evidence of this acceptance of reality can be demonstrated by the fact that polling in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia have been matching Trump and Biden up against one another since the Autumn of 2023, and if these polls were accurate in predicting the Primary Results, then they likely have something to say about the General Election to come.

The map above shows the results of the 2020 Presidential Election in the Electoral College. Biden defeated Trump in the Electoral College by 74 Electoral Votes 306-232. Biden was able to defeat Trump by flipping Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Trump was able to hold on in only North Carolina. Had Trump been able to keep 3 of the 5 States that flipped, he would be President now.

A lot has happened since 2020, Biden has demonstrated a level of incompetence that has not graced the White House since Jimmy Carter. Record high inflation, the dishonorable Afghanistan withdrawal, charges of bribery and corruption, environmental disasters like New Palestine Ohio, a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the worst terror attack on the State of Israel in its history, all of which spells electoral suicide for Biden’s re-election efforts, and the polls in the Key Swing States clearly show this to be true.

Every poll conducted in the Key Swing States since November of 2023 have shown Trump either in the lead, or at the very least tied with his Democratic rival. With 93 Electoral Votes at stake, both candidates must win these States to clinch a victory in the Electoral College, and all the data seems to point to Trump winning all the Swing States in this case. If this trend continues, Donald Trump will be the 47th President of the United States, joining Grover Cleveland as the only President to lose as an incumbent only to come back and win four years after his re-election loss.

Likely, as the race stands right now, Trump will win 312 of the 538 Electoral votes in the Electoral College. There are other determining factors that have not yet presented itself, such as who Trump will pick as his running mate now that Mike Pence has fallen out of favor with the former President. But it is hard to imagine a scenario where that person, whoever he or she may be, will dramatically change the race. Kamala Harris on the other hand has a lower approval rating than either Trump or Biden, both of whom are very controversial.

Finally, Third Party candidates all seem to be disproportionally hurting Biden, and therefore helping Trump. Jill Stein is once again running as the Green Party Candidate, Dr. Cornel West is running as an independent, and most substantially, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. son of the late former Democratic Attorney General, and nephew of the US President is picking up substantial numbers for a third-party candidate. The Independents in the race all appeal to likely Democratic voters more than likely Republican Voters. The uppermost of their support seems to be around 20% of the overall electorate, and with the lion’s share of that support hurting Biden, it would appear that Trump has not only the GOP Nomination sewn up, but the Electoral College as well.

A troubling trend for the Democratic incumbent President is the amount of minority support that Trump continues to garner. Hispanics and Black voters, a traditional bulwark voting block for the Democratic Party are supporting Donald Trump in record numbers. While the Trump Supporters in these demographics are still a minority among Black voters, (17% of Black Supporters currently) Hispanic support for the 45th President has crested to over 50% in recent polls. If these reports are to be believed, then Biden cannot win.

Election prediction is a tricky business, and has made fools of many “brilliant” men, however, all indications seem to point to the conclusion that Trump is well on his way to becoming the 47th President of these United States.

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